OPEC lowers its estimate for non-organization oil production growth this year

FEBRUARY 13, 2024

OPEC has lowered its estimate for growth in non-organization oil production in 2024 by 0.15 million barrels per day.

Non-OPEC oil production is projected to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2024, to an average of 70.5 million barrels per day. This reflects a downward revision of about 150,000 barrels in day compared to the previous month’s estimate, the report said.

The main drivers of growth in oil production outside the organization in 2024, as OPEC expects, will be the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Norway. Offshore projects in Latin America and the North Sea will also provide significant support to growth.

In 2025, non-OPEC oil production is projected to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day compared to 2024, to 71.8 million barrels per day. Growth will be driven by increased production in the US, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while production will fall significantly in Mexico and Angola.